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© 2000 John Petroff |
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© 2000 John Petroff |
Table T-5.33 shows the first 28 lines of spreadsheet cell entries with which the numbers in Table T-5.30 were obtained.
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| 1 | Year | Month |
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| 2 | Ave. | =av(c3:c99) | =av(d3:d99) | =av(e3:e99) | =av(f3:f99) | =av(g3:g99) | =av(h3:h99) | =av(i3:i99) | =av(j3:j99) | =av(k3:k99) | |
| 3 | 1995 | January |
820 |
T=sum(h3:h99) | =i15 | =c3/j3 | |||||
| 4 | February |
775 |
=i16 | =c4/j4 | |||||||
| 5 | March |
805 |
=i17 | =c5/j5 | |||||||
| 6 | April |
890 |
=i18 | =c6/j6 | |||||||
| 7 | May |
980 |
=i19 | =c7/j7 | |||||||
| 8 | June |
1150 |
=sum(c3:c14) | =i20 | =c8/j8 | ||||||
| 9 | July |
1270 |
=sum(c4:c15) | =d8+d9 | =e9/24 | =c9/f9 | =i21 | =c9/j9 | |||
| 10 | August |
1250 |
=sum(c5:c16) | =d9+d10 | =e10/24 | =c10/f10 | =i22 | =c10/j10 | |||
| 11 | Sept |
1210 |
=sum(c6:c17) | =d10+d11 | =e11/24 | =c11/f11 | =i23 | =c11/j11 | |||
| 12 | Oct |
950 |
=sum(c7:c18) | =d11+d12 | =e12/24 | =c12/f12 | =i24 | =c12/j12 | |||
| 13 | Nov |
970 |
=sum(c8:c19) | =d12+d13 | =e13/24 | =c13/f13 | =i25 | =c13/j13 | |||
| 14 | Dec |
1120 |
=sum(c9:c20) | =d13+d14 | =e14/24 | =c14/f14 | =i26 | =c14/j14 | |||
| 15 | 1996 | Jan |
840 |
=sum(c10:c21) | =d14+d15 | =e15/24 | =c15/f15 | =av(g15,g27,g39,g51) | =h15*12/h3 | =i15 | =c15/j15 |
| 16 | Feb |
760 |
=sum(c11:c22) | =d15+d16 | =e16/24 | =c16/f16 | =av(g16,g28,g40,g52) | =h16*12/h3 | =i16 | =c16/j16 | |
| 17 | March |
790 |
=sum(c12:c23) | =d16+d17 | =e17/24 | =c17/f17 | =av(g17,g29,g41,g53) | =h17*12/h3 | =i17 | =c17/j17 | |
| 18 | April |
880 |
=sum(c13:c24) | =d17+d18 | =e18/24 | =c18/f18 | =av(g18,g30,g42,g54) | =h18*12/h3 | =i18 | =c18/j18 | |
| 19 | May |
960 |
=sum(c14:c25) | =d18+d19 | =e19/24 | =c19/f19 | =av(g19,g31,g43,g55) | =h19*12/h3 | =i19 | =c19/j19 | |
| 20 | June |
1170 |
=sum(c15:c26) | =d19+d20 | =e20/24 | =c20/f20 | =av(g20,g32,g44,g56) | =h20*12/h3 | =i20 | =c20/j20 | |
| 21 | July |
1290 |
=sum(c16:c27) | =d20+d21 | =e21/24 | =c21/f21 | =av(g21,g33,g45,g57) | =h21*12/h3 | =i21 | =c21/j21 | |
| 22 | August |
1300 |
=sum(c17:c28) | =d21+d22 | =e22/24 | =c22/f22 | =av(g22,g34,g46,g58) | =h22*12/h3 | =i22 | =c22/j22 | |
| 23 | Sept |
1260 |
=sum(c18:c29) | =d22+d23 | =e23/24 | =c23/f23 | =av(g23,g35,g47,g59) | =h23*12/h3 | =i23 | =c23/j23 | |
| 24 | Oct |
970 |
=sum(c19:c30) | =d23+d24 | =e24/24 | =c24/f24 | =av(g24,g36,g48,g60) | =h24*12/h3 | =i24 | =c24/j24 | |
| 25 | Nov |
1020 |
=sum(c20:c31) | =d24+d25 | =e25/24 | =c25/f25 | =av(g25,g37,g49,g61) | =h25*12/h3 | =i25 | =c25/j25 | |
| 26 | Dec |
1210 |
=sum(c21:c32) | =d25+d26 | =e26/24 | =c26/f26 | =av(g26,g38,g50,g62) | =h26*12/h3 | =i26 | =c26/j26 | |
| 27 | 1997 | January |
1050 |
=sum(c22:c33) | =d26+d27 | =e27/24 | =c27/f27 | =i15 | =c27/j27 | ||
| 28 | February |
920 |
=sum(c23:c34) | =d27+d28 | =e28/24 | =c28/f28 | =i16 | =c28/j28 |
Table T-5.34 below presents the calculation of forecasted values shown in Graph G-5.6 for the example of classical decomposition in Section F. The trend values T are calculated as
T = 1117 + 4.57*t
The forecasted values F are calculated as
F = T*S*C
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1995 |
January |
-30 |
980 |
0.8934 |
0.986554014 |
864 |
| February |
-29 |
985 |
0.7907 |
0.988033401 |
770 |
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| March |
-28 |
989 |
0.7419 |
0.996515221 |
731 |
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| April |
-27 |
994 |
0.889 |
0.982313104 |
868 |
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| May |
-26 |
998 |
0.9794 |
1.010815964 |
988 |
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| June |
-25 |
1003 |
1.1334 |
1.035768295 |
1177 |
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| July |
-24 |
1007 |
1.23 |
0.986554014 |
1222 |
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| August |
-23 |
1012 |
1.21 |
0.988033401 |
1210 |
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| September |
-22 |
1016 |
1.1866 |
0.996515221 |
1201 |
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| October |
-21 |
1021 |
0.9057 |
0.982313104 |
908 |
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| November |
-20 |
1026 |
0.9371 |
1.010815964 |
972 |
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| December |
-19 |
1030 |
1.1028 |
1.035768295 |
1177 |
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1996 |
Janaury 96 |
-18 |
1035 |
0.8934 |
0.986554014 |
912 |
| February |
-17 |
1039 |
0.7907 |
0.988033401 |
812 |
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| March |
-16 |
1044 |
0.7419 |
0.996515221 |
772 |
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| April |
-15 |
1048 |
0.889 |
0.982313104 |
915 |
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| May |
-14 |
1053 |
0.9794 |
1.010815964 |
1042 |
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| June |
-13 |
1057 |
1.1334 |
1.035768295 |
1241 |
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| July |
-12 |
1062 |
1.23 |
0.986554014 |
1289 |
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| August |
-11 |
1066 |
1.21 |
0.988033401 |
1274 |
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| September |
-10 |
1071 |
1.1866 |
0.996515221 |
1266 |
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| October |
-9 |
1076 |
0.9057 |
0.982313104 |
957 |
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| November |
-8 |
1080 |
0.9371 |
1.010815964 |
1023 |
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| December |
-7 |
1085 |
1.1028 |
1.035768295 |
1239 |
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1997 |
January |
-6 |
1089 |
0.8934 |
0.986554014 |
960 |
| February |
-5 |
1094 |
0.7907 |
0.988033401 |
855 |
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| March |
-4 |
1098 |
0.7419 |
0.996515221 |
812 |
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| April |
-3 |
1103 |
0.889 |
0.982313104 |
963 |
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| May |
-2 |
1107 |
0.9794 |
1.010815964 |
1096 |
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| June |
-1 |
1112 |
1.1334 |
1.035768295 |
1305 |
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| July |
1 |
1121 |
1.23 |
0.986554014 |
1360 |
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| August |
2 |
1126 |
1.21 |
0.988033401 |
1346 |
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| September |
3 |
1130 |
1.1866 |
0.996515221 |
1336 |
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| October |
4 |
1135 |
0.9057 |
0.982313104 |
1010 |
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| November |
5 |
1139 |
0.9371 |
1.010815964 |
1079 |
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| December |
6 |
1144 |
1.1028 |
1.035768295 |
1307 |
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1998 |
January |
7 |
1148 |
0.8934 |
0.986554014 |
1012 |
| February |
8 |
1153 |
0.7907 |
0.988033401 |
901 |
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| March |
9 |
1157 |
0.7419 |
0.996515221 |
855 |
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| April |
10 |
1162 |
0.889 |
0.982313104 |
1015 |
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| May |
11 |
1166 |
0.9794 |
1.010815964 |
1154 |
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| June |
12 |
1171 |
1.1334 |
1.035768295 |
1375 |
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| July |
13 |
1175 |
1.23 |
0.986554014 |
1426 |
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| August |
14 |
1180 |
1.21 |
0.988033401 |
1411 |
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| September |
15 |
1185 |
1.1866 |
0.996515221 |
1401 |
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| October |
16 |
1189 |
0.9057 |
0.982313104 |
1058 |
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| November |
17 |
1194 |
0.9371 |
1.010815964 |
1131 |
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| December |
18 |
1198 |
1.1028 |
1.035768295 |
1368 |
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1999 |
January |
19 |
1203 |
0.8934 |
0.986554014 |
1060 |
| February |
20 |
1207 |
0.7907 |
0.988033401 |
943 |
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| March |
21 |
1212 |
0.7419 |
0.996515221 |
896 |
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| April |
22 |
1216 |
0.889 |
0.982313104 |
1062 |
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| May |
23 |
1221 |
0.9794 |
1.010815964 |
1209 |
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| June |
24 |
1225 |
1.1334 |
1.035768295 |
1438 |
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| July |
25 |
1230 |
1.23 |
0.986554014 |
1493 |
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| August |
26 |
1235 |
1.21 |
0.988033401 |
1476 |
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| September |
27 |
1239 |
1.1866 |
0.996515221 |
1465 |
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| October |
28 |
1244 |
0.9057 |
0.982313104 |
1107 |
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| November |
29 |
1248 |
0.9371 |
1.010815964 |
1182 |
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| December |
30 |
1253 |
1.1028 |
1.035768295 |
1431 |
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2000 |
January |
31 |
1257 |
0.8934 |
1.035768295 |
1163 |
| February |
32 |
1262 |
0.7907 |
0.986554014 |
984 |
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| March |
33 |
1266 |
0.7419 |
0.988033401 |
928 |
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| April |
34 |
1271 |
0.889 |
0.996515221 |
1126 |
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| May |
35 |
1275 |
0.9794 |
0.982313104 |
1227 |
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| June |
36 |
1280 |
1.1334 |
1.010815964 |
1466 |
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| July |
37 |
1285 |
1.23 |
1.035768295 |
1637 |
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| August |
38 |
1289 |
1.21 |
0.986554014 |
1539 |
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| September |
39 |
1294 |
1.1866 |
0.988033401 |
1517 |
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| October |
40 |
1298 |
0.9057 |
0.996515221 |
1172 |
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| November |
41 |
1303 |
0.9371 |
0.982313104 |
1199 |
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| December |
42 |
1307 |
1.1028 |
1.010815964 |
1457 |
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| Previous: Appendix 5A |
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Next: Comments |