© 2000 John Petroff
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© 2000 John Petroff |
2)- Socio-economic long term trends
Socio-economic long term trends need to be studied because they affect saving rate, labor motivation, attitudes toward work, entrepreneurship, risk taking, government taxation and spending needs, all of which affect economic growth and national income. In project analysis, an analyst should study the socio-economic trends discussed below to see if modifying estimates of interest rate or industry sales growth is warranted. But, the most important usefulness of looking at socio-economic trends is that they are determinant for technological forecasting touched upon in last section of this chapter.
To understand which scientific invention will have a commercial application it is necessary to study social patterns and draw from them conclusions about the direction research and development of various industries should focus on. New products are introduced because people need them (for instance, many inventions fail because consumers are not yet ready for them). In turn, innovations produce changes in behaviors of those who use them (see for instance, how communication and work are changing with the advent of e-mail and e-commerce). These behavioral modifications may go beyond one individual, and affect an entire family, company or industry. The history of science and inventions demonstrates how a sequence of causation explains each new technological development.
At any point in time, all social patterns seem to be well established and unchanging. It is part of the life that we are accustomed to. But, in fact, social patterns are continuously changing, and it is these changes that bring about changes in products and services society wants. Thus, the task of an analyst is to find trends that are changing, to investigate what causes these changes, to determine if the changes will cease or continue in the future, and to infer what new needs society will have.
Here is a list of trends in the
field of demography, that one would consider
- total population
- birth rate
- death rate
- population growth rate
- age composition of population
- proportion of young and children
- proportion of elderly
- longevity
- proportion of population in child bearing age
- family formation
- average years in school
- educational achievements by different field of study
- proportions of population in different levels of education
- above distribution by race
- above distribution by gender
- population migration
- migration country to country
- migration region to region within country
- migration rural to urban
- migration urban to suburban
- health related motivation for migration
- cultural reasons for migration
- economic reasons for migration
Take the last trend for example: it has marked the type of immigrant coming to the United States, and later moving to Western states. Today's immigrants are far more educated and wealthy, but may not have the same desire to overcome difficulties.
Similar lists of trends can be built for fields of
- political priorities
- social consequences of income growth
- domestic consequences of world population continuing growth
- use of natural resources
- consequences of increasing transportation and communication
speed and ease
- consequences of increasing exchange of cultures and products
See review questions Q-15A2.1 through Q-15A2.3.
See research assignment R-15A2.1 through R-15A2.2.
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