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Financial analysis | Contributor © John Petroff |
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For many major corporate bonds, finding the correct discount rate to use requires simply to look up the rating given by different services and finding a recent list of bond yields published by these rating services. As noted in Chapter 1 Section D-1c, the two major bond rating services in the U.S. are Moody's and Standard & Poor, and there are other services which grade smaller issues. For very small companies, Dun & Bradstreet sells information on virtually all businesses for a fee. How rating services arrive at their ratings is outlined in Section D-4 of next chapter with an example of the method used by Standard & Poor. The rating methods used by Moody's and S&P differ slightly, and individual companies are not always rated by the two services exactly in the same manner.
The meaning of Moody's corporate bond ratings are listed in Table T-3.1 below.
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| Aaa | Bonds which are rated Aaa are judged to be of the best quality. They carry the smallest degree of investment risk and are generally referred to as gilt edge. Interest payments are protected by a large or by an exceptionally stable margin and principal is secure. While the various protective elements are likely to change, such changes as can be visualized are most unlikely to impair the fundamentally strong position of such issues. |
| Aa | Bonds which are rated Aa are judged to be of high quality by all standards. Together with the Aaa group they comprise what are generally known as high grade bonds. They are rated lower than the best bonds because margins of protection may not be as large as in Aaa securities or fluctuation of protective elements may be of greater amplitude, or there may be other elements present which make the long term risks appear somewhat larger than in Aaa securities. |
| A | Bonds which are rated A possess many favorable investment attributes and are to be considered as upper medium grade obligations. Factors giving security to principal and interest are considered adequate but elements may be present which suggest a susceptibility to impairment sometimes in the future. |
| Baa | Bonds which are rated Baa are considered as medium grade obligations, i.e., they are neither highly protected nor poorly secured. Interest payments and principal security appear adequate for the present but certain protective elements may be lacking or may be characteristically unreliable over any great length of time. Such bonds lack outstanding investment characteristics and in fact have speculative characteristics as well. |
| Ba | Bond which are rated Ba are judged to have speculative elements; their future cannot be considered as well assured. Often the protection of interest and principal payments may be very moderate and thereby not well safeguarded during both good and bad times over the future. Uncertainty of position characterizes bonds in this class. |
| B | Bonds which are rated B generally lack characteristics of desirable investment. Assurance of interest and principal payments or of maintenance of other terms of the contract over any long period of time may be small. |
| Caa | Bonds which are rate Caa are of poor standing. Such issues may be in default or there may be present elements of danger with respect to principal or interest. |
| Ca | Bonds which are rated Ca represent obligations which are speculative in a high degree. Such issues are often in default or have other marked shortcomings. |
| C | Bonds which are rated C are the lowest class of bonds and issues so rated can be regarded as having extremely poor prospects of ever attaining any real investment standing. |
| Source: Moody's Bond Record (May 1991). | |
Table T-3.2 presents the equivalency between S& P and Moody' rating, as well as an indication how these ratings correspond to generic ratings.
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| S&P | Moody's | Generic |
| SP1 | P1 | - |
| A1+ | VMIG1 | AAA |
| "--- | MIG1 | - |
| AAA | Aaa | - |
| A-1 | - | - |
| A-2 | P2 | - |
| AA+ | Aa1 | AA |
| AA | Aa2 | - |
| AA- | Aa3 | - |
| - | Aa | - |
| - | P3 | - |
| SP1 | VMIG2 | - |
| A-3 | MIG2 | A |
| A+ | A1 | - |
| A | A2 | - |
| A- | A3 | - |
| - | A | - |
| - | PRIME | - |
| - | MIG3 | - |
| SP2 | VMIG3 | - |
| BBB+ | Baa1 | BBB |
| BBB | Baa2 | - |
| BBB- | Baa3 | - |
| - | Baa | - |
| - | MIG4 | - |
| SP3 | VMIG4 | - |
| BB+ | Ba1 | BB |
| BB | Ba2 | - |
| BB- | Ba3 | - |
| - | Ba | - |
| B+ | B1 | - |
| B | B2 | B |
| B- | B3 | - |
| - | B | - |
| CCC+ | - | - |
| CCC | Caa | CCC |
| CCC- | - | - |
| CC | Ca | CC |
| C | C | C |
| D | - | D |
| - | NP | - |
| NR | NR | - |
| NA | NA | - |
In Moody's classification bonds rated Aaa to Baa, and in Standard & Poor's classification bonds rated AAA to BBB, are said to be investment grade. This confers on a bond a mark of quality which allows certain institutional investors (such as pension funds and trusts) to invest in them. Because this requirement has originally been instituted by the SEC, and recently proposed changes in the rating process would put even more importance on ratings, the services have objected to an excessive reliance on their ratings and have emphasized that it should be up to investors to make their own interpretation.
Table T-3.3 below shows an example of corporate bond yields presented for different ratings for the months indicated. This chart is published by S&P monthly.
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Table T-3.4 shows that yields in different industries are not the same for identical grade bonds.
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Corporate Bond Yield Averages Monthly-to-Date |
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| Month | Aaa | Aa | A | Baa | Aaa | Aa | A | Baa | Aaa | Aa | A | Baa |
| January | 7.78 | 7.96 | 8.15 | 8.33 | 7.60 | 7.74 | 7.94 | 8.26 | 7.95 | 8.17 | 8.35 | 8.40 |
| February | 7.68 | 7.82 | 8.06 | 8.29 | 7.53 | 7.65 | 7.87 | 8.24 | 7.82 | 7.99 | 8.25 | 8.33 |
| March | 7.68 | 7.83 | 8.07 | 8.37 | 7.48 | 7.66 | 7.84 | 8.34 | 7.87 | 7.99 | 8.28 | 8.40 |
| April | 7.64 | 7.82 | 8.07 | 8.40 | 7.41 | 7.63 | 7.84 | 8.4 | 7.87 | 8.00 | 8.29 | 8.40 |
| May | 7.99 | 8.24 | 8.49 | 8.90 | 7.76 | 8.03 | 8.28 | 8.94 | 8.22 | 8.44 | 8.7 | 8.85 |
| June | 7.67 | 7.87 | 8.18 | 8.48 | 7.37 | 7.63 | 8.00 | 8.49 | 7.96 | 8.10 | 8.36 | 8.47 |
| July | 7.65 | 7.81 | 8.11 | 8.35 | 7.31 | 7.53 | 7.98 | 8.33 | 7.99 | 8.1 | 8.25 | 8.33 |
| August | 7.95 | 8.13 | 8.25 | 8.05 | 7.44 | 7.91 | 8.26 | 7.70 | 7.70 | 8.02 | 8.26 | 7.88 |
| September | 7.62 | 7.83 | 8.13 | 8.35 | 7.29 | 7.54 | 8.03 | 8.37 | 7.95 | 8.11 | 8.23 | 8.32 |
| October | 7.55 | 7.81 | 8.11 | 8.34 | 7.29 | 7.55 | 8.08 | 8.38 | 7.80 | 8.08 | 8.14 | 8.29 |
| November | 7.45 | 7.75 | 8.09 | 8.28 | 7.19 | 7.47 | 8.07 | 8.31 | 7.71 | 8.03 | 8.11 | 8.25 |
| December | 7.21 | 7.48 | 7.88 | 8.02 | 6.90 | 7.16 | 7.90 | 8.03 | 7.51 | 7.79 | 7.84 | 8.01 |
| Source: Moody's "Credit Survey", January 29, 2001 | ||||||||||||
Differences in yields are naturally the consequence of differences in profitability, sales growth and other conditions particular to each industry (see Chapter 14 Section A-3). Even for a given company, the rating may differ according to particular forms of protection offered in various separate bond issues (see Chapter 12 Section D). Because it takes a few weeks for the latest publication of Moody's (or Standard & Poor) bond yields to be available, it is usually necessary to find the most recent yields of comparable securities from newspapers. < /A>For example, one may find in a box called "Active Bond Issues," appearing daily in the New York Times, yields to maturity on newly issued bonds, with rating and industry group also shown for each of these listings.
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The following is an example of an early 1995 pricing of a bond issued by Public Service Electric and Gas of New Jersey with a coupon at an annual rate of 6 1/8, maturing in 2002. The rating of PSE&G bonds is A- by Standard & Poor, and a A- bond issue had a yield to maturity of 6.72% at that time. Some simplifying assumption are necessary: coupon payments are twice a year, the maturity date is exactly 7 years from now, and there is no accrued coupon. There are 14 periods and the discount rate is half of 6.72% (see time value of money in Chapter 2 Section C-2). Each semiannual coupon is worth $306.25, that is, face value of $10,000 (i.e. all bonds are priced on the basis of a nominal price of $10,000) multiplied by half of the coupon rate of 6.125% (i.e. 3.0625%). BV = 306.25 (1 - 1/(1 + 0.0672/2)14)/(0.0672/2) + 10000/(1 + 0.0672/2)14 BV = 306.25 x 11.02381 + 10000 x 0.6296 = $9,672.42 This PSE&G bond was quoted in the New York Times at 97 5/8 (i.e. 97.625% of its nominal value, since quotations are made on a 100 basis), and is therefore selling at a price of $9,762.50 (that is, 97.625 x $10,000). The higher actual selling price compared to the estimated price can be attributed to either accrued coupon which was assumed away, or a drop in market rates. In fact, the New York Times reported that yields slid by 0.5% on that day in 1995, and may have caused PSE&G quotations to jump by $50 from the previous day. |
Note that the principal is also commonly discounted in the same intraanual manner (i.e. over 14 periods and not over 7 in the example above) as the coupon, even though there is no promise to pay out the principal on those dates. One possible explanation for this is to maintain consistency between coupon and principal calculation.
Most financial publications (such as N.Y .Times, Wall Street Journal and Financial Times) which report bond quotes, also show total yield. This total yield (as defined in Chapter 2 Section F-2) is also known as the yield to maturity or total rate of return: it combines the current yield (i.e. coupon divided by latest quote) with return from appreciation or depreciation of principal if held to maturity. If that yield to maturity is used as discount rate, one would obtain exactly the quoted price because yield to maturity is calculated on the basis of the quoted price in the first place. This means that all the information contained in a quoted price is also contained in the yield to maturity. Thus, it is not necessary to calculate the dollar value of a bond in order to compare it to quoted price. One can just as well compare reported yield to maturity to yields to maturity of comparable bonds that have same rating, same coupon rate and same maturity. How to deal with situation where coupon rates and maturity are different is touched upon in Section 2F-3b of preceding chapter and in Secion 4D-1 of next chapter.
See review questions Q-3A.1 through Q-3A1.12
See research assignments R-3.1, R-3.2 and R-3.3.
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