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3)- US Economic Information
The major sources of information
about the economy are Survey of Current Business and Federal Reserve
Bulletin. For instance, with the help of leading, coincidental
and lagging indicators (see below and Chapter
15 Section C-5) one can timely determine whether the economy
is expanding or contracting. But most of the statistics are very
dry, and it takes courage and effort for non-professionals to
give the numbers their true significance. That is why business
publications are once again of welcome assistance.
- a)- Government
- "Statistical Abstracts of the United States" is a
convenient statistical reference on social, political and economic
historical patterns, and a guide to data sources. It is published
annually by the Bureau of Census since 1878. Because it contains
statistics on practically everything that takes place in the
United States (and to a lesser extent, abroad), and because sources
of data are indicated, this reference text should be considered
as a first place to look when planning any economic empirical
research. However, historical series usually cover only the previous
five to 15 years in each edition. To build longer data sets,
several editions often need be consulted. Changes in definitions
and table composition are not uncommon; this results in data
gaps. Statistical Abstracts are available for download starting
with the 115th edition issued in 1995. See http://www.census.gov/prod/www/statistical-abstract-us.html
- "Economic Report of the President"
looks at recent and especially future economic problems, and
is published together with US Congress Economic Joint Committee's
"Joint Economic Report"; it is available on-line from
the Bureau of Economic Research.
- "Survey of Current Business"
published by the US Department of Commerce, contains monthly
updates on all key economic series (national income, consumption,
investment, savings, prices, wages, interest rates, and so on),
with breakdown by industry, and leading, lagging and coincidental
indicators. The latter are derived by the National Bureau of
Economic Research, and are essential for making predictions (see
Chapter 15 Section C-5).
Each issue contains a number of articles on specific sectors
or trends in the economy. For most data series, this is the most
up-to-date source, but one must be aware that corrections to
some of the latest data (i.e. data issued in last six months)
is not uncommon. Some of the monthly issues (not the latest however)
are available on line at http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/pubs.htm
or pubs.htm.
- "Annual Report" of the President's Council of Economic
Advisors offers economic forecasts.
- "Budget of the United States Government" is available
on-line from the Bureau of Economic Research at pubs.htm.
- "Handbook of Basic Economic Statistics" is available
from Economic Statistics Bureau.
- Fedstats at http://www.fedstats.gov/ is a convenient
web directory with access to government statistics, reports and
articles, as previously mentioned.
- USA-stat at http://www.stat-usa.gov/
is web source of federal statistics for a moderate fee per item,
or for an annual subscription of $150 per subscriber.
- Economic Information Systems at www-eco-line.com
provides a lot of data USA-stat offers, but at no charge. In
addition, it is organized in a most convenient format for immediate
use in any spreadsheet or application.
- Web sites of federal government agencies accessed through http://www.fedstats.gov/,
that contain economic data, are
- - Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Census Bureau
- Congress of the United States
- Department of Commerce
- Department of Labor
- Department of the Treasury and SOI tax statistics.
- Social Security Administration
- International data is available from the following web sites
- Penn World Tables
- Europa, home site of the European Union.
- International Monetary Fund
- Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
- Organization of American States
- World Bank
- Other web sites that may be useful
- National Science Foundation
- Superintendent of U.S. Government Documents
- USIA, the United States Information Agency
b)- Federal Reserve System
- "Federal Reserve Bulletin"
published by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank,
gives monthly statistics on monetary aggregates, rates and economic
activity, as well as some studies. The same data is presented
in graphical form in "Federal Reserve Monthly Chart Book"
and "Historical Chart Book".
- "Reviews" published free of charge by federal reserve
banks of each district, offer articles useful to understand changing
monetary and economic conditions. "U.S. Financial Data"
published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis gives weekly
updates of monetary statistics.
- Web sites of the Federal Reserve System are
- Federal
Reserve Economic Data (FRED) at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred/index.html.
- Board of Governors at http://www.federalreserve.gov/.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
- Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
- Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis For Data only
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York For Data only
- Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
c)- Commercial banks and other organizations
Numerous commercial banks (notably major banks such as Citicorp,
Chase Manhattan Bank and Bank of America) offer analyses, interpretations
and forecasts of economic conditions to their customers and the
public free of charge. Several research organizations (such as
the Conference Board) also publish economic analyses, some free
of charge and some for a fee.
See review questions Q-1D3.1
to Q-1D3.4
See research assignment R-1D3.1.