© 2000 John Petroff
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© 2000 John Petroff |
Assignments, Cases & Exercises
Research assignments for Economic Analysis:
R-15A1.1 Obtain and present in a graph the pattern of economic growth rate of the United States and seven major other countries of the world for the past 50 years. Discuss disparities and similarities in the patterns.
R-15A1.2 Using the data in compiled in research assignment R-15A1.1 offer projections for the coming three years and explain the basis for the projection of each country.
R-15A1.3 Find articles that duplicate and update Dennison's derivation of sources of growth in the United States, or compile your own. Compare the breakdown of the different derivations and comment on which seems best applicable for the future.
R-15A1.4 Find articles that duplicate Dennison's derivation of source of growth for different industrialized and developing countries, or compile your own. Especially, obtain or prepare such breakdown for your country if you live in another country than the United States. Discuss the breakdown. Comment on effect of foreign countries, if any.
R-15A1.5 Using the data in compiled in research assignment R-15A1.4 offer projections for the coming three years and explain the basis for the projections.
R-15A2.1 Choose one of the most significant socio-economic trends related to population and research how the trend can have a meaningful impact on the overall economy in the future. Identify which industries are likely to be boosted and which threatened. Pick specific companies in those industry especially well positioned or at risk.
R-15A2.2 Construct lists of socio-economic trends for fields of political priorities, rising living standards, role of increased communication speed, attention given to natural resources, or some other field you consider will be most important in the future. Point out which trends in the list will be most potent.
R-15B1.1 In you live or have an interest in a country other than the United States, obtain data and show the pattern of business cycles in that country for the past century (if available), in a graph and a table. Discuss whether the pattern is changing and offer possible reasons.
R-15B2.1 Separate out the economy in a few (i.e. five to eight) sectors. Construct a schedule of the pattern of each over the six phases of the business cycle. Explain for each phase why events in the different sectors are not synchronized.
R-15B3.1 Research and outline examples of misguided fiscal and monetary policies (in your country or in the United States). Discuss why understanding the reasons why the policies were misguided, is important for improved policies in the future and for making predictions of future economic conditions.
R-15B3.2 Report recent (i.e. past five to ten years) clear evidence of monetary and fiscal action. Study if these decisions where inspired by traditional or new economic thought. What changes in economic conditions justify recasting fiscal and/or monetary policies in a new light.
R-15B3.3 Describe current economic conditions (in a country of your choice) that warrant immediate action by the federal, local or monetary authorities. Discuss how likely are government and political forces to bring about the needed remedies.
R-15B4.1 Review the explanations of the business cycle. Pick the one that economic literature favors currently, and those that seem discredited. Highlight recent economic conditions that explain this choice.
R-15C1.1 Study the structure, estimation and performance of a major econometric model. List some of the key assumptions underlying the model. Indicate how the model is made sensitive to latest events. Discuss whether a financial analyst should rely on such model.
R-15C1.2 Compare major econometric models outlined in economic literature. Point out strong aspects of each, and the situations where each outperforms others. Conclude by determining the cases when such models should be used.
R-15C2.1 Present a major input-output table forecasting matrix. Give examples of when and how the matrix was used recently. Explain why the matrix needs maintenance, and how it is done.
R-15C3.1 Study time-series forecasting model. Verify their claim to accuracy of predictions. Outline how one of them is estimated and used for forecasting. Discuss their limitations.
R-15C4.1 Read articles or books that compare different economic forecasting techniques. See if judgmental forecasts outperform others on occasion. Offer explanations for when that is likely to take place.
R-15C4.2 Obtain the latest judgmental economic forecast (for the country of your choice). Review the justification for the forecast, if any. Discuss whether you agree with it.
R-15C5.1 Obtain values of the components of US leading and lagging indicators for the last 30 years. Compare each component to the reference business cycle. Observe which component has consistently pointed in the right direction, and which have occasionally severely erred. Argue the justification for keeping the various components in the indicators.
R-15C5.2 Study the latest leading, coincidental and lagging indicators. Point out what they tell. Compare their message to those of professional economic forecasts recently published. Suggest the timing of the forthcoming turning point.
Cases for Economic Analysis:
Obtain Panamco's 1999 annual report from the company's web
site listed in Case - PB. Study
the description of the economic difficulties encountered in several
countries. Find economic forecasts for these countries (e.g. from
World Bank) and determine Panamco's likely performance in year
2000 and after. Comment whether the economic and political risk
of doing business in Latin American countries should discourage
Panamco and other firms.
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